The lunch starts at 12:00, and the talk will start around 12:20.

NB: Wednesday BigInsight Lunches are open to staff and students from any of the BigInsight partners, including UiO, but not to others.

Speaker: Erik Løhre, Associate Professor at Høgskolen i Innlandet, Department of Psychology.

Location: Spiseriet at Norsk Regnesentral.

Title: Understanding intuitive interpretations of uncertain climate change predictions

Abstract:

Although many of the key facts regarding climate change (e.g., that the world is becoming warmer and that greenhouse gases are a main contributor) are about as certain as one can expect, predictions of climate change and its consequences are uncertain. I present studies showing that lay people interpret the uncertainty communicated by climate scientists in ways that may differ from the intended meaning. Specifically, people often find precise predictions to be more certain than vague ones, and may associate more certainty with stronger outcomes. The findings reveal some common intuitive ways of thinking about uncertainty and probability, and have practical implications for how risks and uncertainties should be communicated to ensure understanding.