The talk starts at 12:15.

Please note that due to COVID-19, the participants can watch the streamed talk on Teams with a link (below).

Speaker: Dani Barna

Location: 8th floor math building and Teams Click here to join the meeting

Title:  A Bayesian approach to Flood-Duration-Frequency Analysis

Abstract: As floods become increasingly prevalent in Norway under climate change there is a growing need for relevant design flood values. Such values give estimates of flood magnitude within a given return period and are essential to making adaptive decisions around land use planning, infrastructure design, and disaster mitigation. The accuracy of design flood values hinges on their ability to properly characterize the magnitude of a flood; while traditional flood frequency analysis methods consider peak and/or daily average flows when defining magnitude, we seek to implement a more comprehensive method that models flood magnitude as a combination of both peak flow and duration. Such modelling is termed flood-duration-frequency, or QDF, modelling. The QDF modelling approach proposed here establishes a parametric relationship between the quantiles of the distributions from flood events of different durations, allowing for the estimation of design flood values for floods of any duration. We establish an at-site QDF model for select gauging sites in Norway using a Bayesian modelling framework.