The talk starts at 12:15.

Please note that due to COVID-19, the participants can watch the streamed talk on Teams/zoom with a link (below).

Speaker: Fredrik Andreas Dahl (NR)

Location: Zoom. See link below.

Title:  Predicting the future demand for stroke unit capacity in Norway

Abstract: Stroke is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in Norway, and stroke patients are known to benefit from timely treatment in a stroke unit (SU). In this study, we have produced region wise estimates for SU beds demand from the present until 2040. The SU admissions were divided into four diagnosis groups, including one for non-stroke conditions, labelled ‘stroke mimics’. For each diagnosis group, we have developed models of incidence and length of stay (LOS) as a function of age, sex, year, and health region, based on hospital data sources. The models were combined with demographic predictions from Statistics Norway to yield future demand estimates. The demographic trend of population ageing contributes to an increase in the demand, which is more than compensated for by a predicted reduction in the (ischemic) stroke incidence. However, the number of mimics is predicted to increase, and these effects largely cancel out, predicting a stable SU bed demand. The main uncertainty is related to the continued decline in stroke incidence. If this is incorrect, the demand may increase by up to 50% by 2040. Another critical assumption is a stationary LOS, which goes against an observed decline. This assumption was made because a further LOS reduction was considered medically problematic. Also, the LOS may be considered an endogenous variable that represents the hospitals’ response to the given demand.

Join Zoom Meeting:
https://uio.zoom.us/j/63199595088?pwd=Y05GYkJwR1dCUHFhUnlGMFpsdGc3UT09

Meeting ID: 631 9959 5088
Passcode: 302551